Uncovering Hidden Gems in Japan’s Emerging Football Market
Exploring Talent in The J1-League
In this article, I’ll take you on a deep dive into one of the most exciting and undervalued talent pools in world football—Japan's J1-League.
Recently, HudlStatsBomb released a comprehensive set of event data from the full 2024 season of the J1-League, Japan’s top-tier football league. This release is particularly fascinating because Japan has rapidly emerged as a booming market for uncovering undervalued and affordable football talent.
What makes Japanese players especially intriguing is not just their technical ability but their cultural attributes. Known for their honesty, discipline, and relentless work ethic, they are often described as a coach’s dream. Ange Postecoglou, now managing Tottenham Hotspur, experienced this firsthand during his tenure in Japan.
“It’s a great country. They’re very passionate about their football, got outstanding footballers. It certainly helped me when I went to Scotland in that I knew that there were fantastic footballers there that people probably hadn’t noticed because they were in Japan. It allowed me to sort of try and unearth guys who I knew were going to be fantastic footballers, but maybe the rest of the world didn’t know about.”
— Ange Postecoglou (Goal, 2023)
During his time at Celtic in Scotland, Postecoglou brought in several Japanese players, reaping the rewards of their quality and dedication. This trend has since caught the attention of clubs across Europe. Championship teams in England, for instance, have begun tapping into the Japanese market. As highlighted in a recent article by The Athletic, post-Brexit regulations have made it easier to recruit players from Japan. These players align well with the increasingly possession-based styles of play in Europe, which demand technical precision — a hallmark of Japanese footballers (The Athletic, 2024).
Moreover, concerns about the physicality of leagues like the Championship have been proven largely unfounded, with Japanese players showing they can handle the rigors of the game. This success has extended to the Bundesliga, where players like Daichi Kamada (now at Crystal Palace) and Wataru Endo (now at Liverpool) excelled before making their way to the Premier League. Brighton’s Kaoru Mitoma* is another standout example, bursting onto the Premier League scene almost directly from Japan as clubs with a sharp eye for value continue to explore this growing talent pool.
*Brighton signed Kaoru Mitoma for €3 million from Kawasaki Frontale in Japan’s J1 League. Shortly after, they loaned him to their Belgian partner club, Union SG, for a year. Upon his return, Mitoma made a strong impression in the Premier League. Now, Mitoma is worth €45 million, according to TransferMarkt.
In this article, I will dive into the data to uncover potential hidden gems in the J-League — players who might soon make their mark in European football.
J1-League Event Data
Before diving into individual players, it’s essential to outline a few characteristics of the J-League and the dataset. The league comprises 20 teams, and judging by the league table, multiple clubs were in contention for the title, signaling a competitive environment. Vissel Kobe ended up winning their second title in a row and the four teams behind was within a seven point margin.
According to TransferMarkt, the average age of players in the league is 26.9 years, indicating that teams aim to maintain a balance between experienced and younger players. Furthermore, the league has a notable presence of foreign talent, with 14.9% of its players — equivalent to 100 individuals — coming from overseas.
Goals
Naturally, I began my exploration by focusing on goals — the aspect of football most cherished by fans. Interestingly, while 27 is generally considered the peak age for footballers, the data reveals that many of the league’s top scorers are older than the average player age. For example, the J-League Player of the Year, Yoshinori Muto (Vissel Kobe), is 32 years old, while Anderson Lopes, the league’s top scorer with 24 goals, is 31. In fact, only three of the top 10 scorers are under 25 years of age. Below is a table showcasing the top 10 goal scorers of the season.
Shin Yamada — A Notable Performer
Team: Kawasaki Frontale
MV: €900k
One of the most intriguing names on the list is Shin Yamada (24), who scored an impressive 19 goals, significantly outperforming his expected goals (xG). His post-shot xG numbers suggest a player with exceptional finishing ability, making him an exciting prospect to analyze further. Upon reviewing his footage on YouTube, it became clear why his xG is relatively low compared to his goals tally — he scores a lot of headers (7 out of 19 goals were headers which is most in the league)! For those unfamiliar, headers are statistically harder to convert into goals, often resulting in lower xG values. However, Yamada’s movement in the box and his aerial prowess are pretty impressing. Check out the video below where he scores two brilliant headers, highlighting his unique strengths.
Fox in the box
Shin Yamada is a ‘fox in the box’ and reminds me a little bit about Diogo Jota. He leads the league in goal contributions per 90 minutes, averaging an impressive 0.98 Goals + Assists per 90.
Upon reviewing a variety of his goals, it’s clear that Shin Yamada is an exceptional finisher with a diverse skill set. He demonstrates strong technical ability and a remarkable knack for holding his ground against defenders, making him difficult to dispossess. Beyond his goal-scoring prowess, Yamada is also a creative force, contributing 4 assists during the season.
What makes him even more intriguing is his ranking — second among center forwards — for OBV (On-Ball Value).
OBV, which is comparable to Expected Threat (xT), is a metric that evaluates a player’s impact both offensively and defensively, taking into account actions that increase the likelihood of scoring or preventing goals. This suggests that Yamada’s contributions extend beyond scoring; he adds significant value in build-up play and defensive transitions, embodying the qualities of a well-rounded forward. This is also supported in his heatmap below. We can see that he operates mostly central and to the right side of the pitch (attacking direction towars the right).
Moreover, his leadership qualities stand out as he captains his team, Kawasaki Frontale, who finished a respectable 8th in the J-League table. Despite his team’s mid-table finish, Yamada’s performance has been a standout, showcasing his ability to deliver consistently in various facets of the game.
All in all, Yamada is a highly exciting prospect to watch, capable of scoring in multiple ways, creating opportunities for his teammates, and influencing the game on both sides of the ball. His leadership and technical ability make him a player with the potential to thrive in a more competitive league.
Ryotaro Araki — A Future Star?
Team: FC Tokyo
MV: €1M
While exploring the data, I filtered for ‘center attacking midfielders’ to identify players with standout On-Ball Value (OBV) rankings. Once again, I observed the same trend of relatively older players leading the charts — except for one name that stood out: Ryotaro Araki, a 22-year-old ranked third in OBV among central attacking midfielders.
Intrigued, I turned to YouTube to see him in action. And honestly, within just a few minutes of watching his clips, the numbers didn’t matter as much anymore. It became evident that Araki is a special talent. Take a look for yourself:
Profile
First and foremost, Araki’s dribbling is awesome. He can twist and turn, often leaving defenders off-balance. What’s even more exciting is his comfort with both feet — which allows him to go both ways, strangely enough, a rare trait in football. His ability to decelerate and then explode with bursts of speed makes him a constant threat in one-on-one situations.
His creativity shines in tight spaces, particularly inside the opponent’s box, where he displays imagination and instinctive decision-making. For instance, there’s a goal in the video where, despite being tightly marked, he manages to receive the ball and turn and score in a single fluid movement (4:48 in the video). His decision-making often surprises defenders, adding an unpredictable edge to his game.
Araki is heavily involved across the pitch, mostly in the opponent’s half, but mainly on the left side of the field, as illustrated in his heatmap below.
Araki’s Stats
While his highlights are impressive, his data adds further weight to his potential. Here’s a breakdown of his offensive contributions during the season:
7 Goals and 4 Assists in 29 appearances.
10 Through Balls, averaging 0.39 per 90 minutes (6th in the overall league).
40 Key Passes, averaging 1.54 per 90 minutes (3rd among players aged 25 and under).
Although he doesn’t lead any individual offensive metrics, his numbers are pretty good for a player his age. They highlight his growing influence and suggest that his ceiling is far from being reached. I have visualized some of his offensive actions below.
The visualizations above highlight Ryo Araki’s impressive contributions through progressive actions, showcasing his ability to influence the game in multiple ways. On the left, we see his range and precision in key passes and through balls, critical in breaking down defenses and creating opportunities in the final third. On the right, his progressive carries emphasize his capability to advance the ball into dangerous areas, leveraging his technical ability and vision.
The data visualized underline how Araki is one of the most exciting young players in the J-League. His combination of creativity, vision, and technical skill allows him to orchestrate play while also posing a direct threat himself.
Kota Takai — The Japanese Van Dijk?
Team: Kawasaki Frontale
MV: €550k
The final player in our analysis is a standout defender, Kota Takai. While many metrics in the J-League are dominated by older players, Takai emerged not through direct data analysis but by earning the prestigious Best Young Player of the Season award for 2024. It’s rare for defenders to receive such accolades unless they demonstrate exceptional ability. Reports have linked Takai with top European clubs, including Juventus, signaling the growing recognition of his talent.
Profile
At just 20 years old, Takai already possesses an imposing 193 cm height, ideal for a center-back. His physical profile allows him to excel in aerial duels and dominate defensive battles. Promoted to Kawasaki Frontale’s first team in 2022, he has rapidly gained experience, playing 14 matches in his debut season and becoming a regular starter in 2023/24 with 24 appearances. His performances also earned him his first international cap for Japan shortly after turning 20. Takai is right footed, but he can play on both sides of defense which is highlighted by his heatmap below.
Takai’s promise is further highlighted in the latest CIES Football Observatory Scouting Report, where he ranks fifth among the best-performing young all-around center-backs globally, alongside players like Barcelona’s Pau Cubarsí of FC Barcelona. This recognition speaks volumes about his potential to develop into a top-tier defender.
Watching Kota Takai play confirms his credentials as an emerging center-back talent. His aerial dominance is immediately evident, as he consistently wins duels and even contributed two goals from set pieces this season, showcasing his threat in offensive situations. Takai also demonstrates an impressive ability to read the game, frequently stepping in to intercept passes and disrupt opposition attacks.
Takai appears calm and technical with the ball, often initiating attacks by carrying the ball forward and finding forward passes. His ability to combine with teammates and maintain possession under pressure reflects his confidence and ball-playing skill — attributes that align with the demands of modern center-backs. Watch ‘The Japanese Van Dijk’ in action below.
Overall Assessment
Koto Takai’s combination of physical dominance, ball-playing ability, and tactical awareness makes him one of the most exciting young defenders in the J-League. At just 20, he has the potential to develop into an elite center-back. His physical profile sets him apart, but his technical ability and reading of the game position him as a modern defender capable of thriving in Europe’s top leagues.
However, his tendency to step out of defense can appear borderline reckless at times, as he aggressively pursues the ball and opposition attackers. While this approach has proven effective in the J-League, benefiting from his physical attributes, it raises questions about how he might fare against higher-level opposition. Could this leave his team exposed to quick transitions and counterattacks, particularly in a league with faster and more technical forwards?
On the other hand, his strengths could shine in a system that plays a dominating style with a high defensive line, where his proactive defending and ability to anticipate play would be assets.
With the right development and tactical environment, Takai could emerge as a key defensive figure in European football, embodying the attributes of the modern center-back. It will be fascinating to see which club secures his signature and how he adapts to higher levels of competition.
Where Could They Go?
In this article, I have introduced the J-League as an exciting emerging market for European clubs. With numerous success stories in recent years, interest in Japanese football continues to grow, and players are becoming increasingly open to moving overseas. While analyzing the dataset, it became evident that many of the top performers are older players. However, amidst this trend, there are hidden gems with the potential to thrive on bigger stages. Here’s my assessment of where the three players highlighted in this article could be headed in the future:
Shin Yamada: A natural goal scorer with impressive aerial ability and strength in the box, Yamada seems tailor-made for a move to Scotland or the English Championship. His age profile and experience make him an ideal fit for these leagues, where his knack for shrugging off defenders and operating effectively in advanced areas of the pitch would be highly valued.
Ryotaro Araki: With immense technical ability and creativity, Araki has the potential to become a standout player in Europe. However, he may not be ready for a top five league just yet. A move to Belgium or the Netherlands would provide him with the perfect platform to refine his game and gain valuable experience before taking on greater challenges in the future. Apparently, Ajax and FC Tokyo have a good relationship — maybe Ajax could be a good place for him to shine?
Kota Takai: The most exciting prospect of the three, Takai’s combination of physical dominance and composure on the ball has already caught the attention of major clubs. A move to Serie A seems plausible, particularly given Juventus’ reported interest. However, it’s likely that he would spend time on loan to further develop his game before establishing himself as a regular starter at a top club.
I hope you’ve enjoyed this deep dive into the J-League and its growing potential as a talent pipeline for European football. As this market continues to grow, we can expect to see more players making the move overseas, creating exciting opportunities for clubs willing to explore this untapped resource.
If you're more curious about Japanese football, I highly recommend checking out
here on Substack. Ryo, the writer, is an expert on the Japanese football leagues and offer in-depth insights that any football fan or scout will appreciate.☕️ If you enjoy my content, consider buying me a coffee here. Sipping to a Cortado is when I get my best ideas💡
References
Goal. (2023). Ange Postecoglu on Football Manager, Japan and Tactics. URL:
CIES Football Observatory. (2024). Scouting Report: best performing young players. URL: https://www.cies.ch/cies/news/news-detail/article/scouting-report-best-performing-young-players?fbclid=IwY2xjawHc_Y1leHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHR0HtogrwS8FOcGQiXTHMq0XDbcTuvGrieto0rAqzRU_GLcCicenl3n-8A_aem_jicvvilRzmfqrMXBnU1o0A
HudlStatsbom (2024). Free Data: J1 League 2024. URL: https://www.hudl.com/blog/j1-league-free-data-statsbomb
Froston, N. (2024). The Athletic: Why have Japanese players become so attractive to Championship clubs? URL: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5965548/2024/12/10/why-have-japanese-players-become-so-attractive-to-championship-clubs/
BBC (2023). Scotland, land of rising sons: Why are so many Japanese players coming to the Premiership? URL: https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/64416897