Contextual Scouting: How Strategy Can Beat Spending
A Case Study In Strategic Squad Building And Smart Resource Allocation
Outthinking, Not Outspending
Across world football, financial constraints define reality for most clubs. Many clubs operate within tightly controlled budgets, revenue-based salary caps, or league regulations that restrict contracts and wage bills. The context varies by competition, but the fundamental challenge remains the same: how do you build a competitive squad when you cannot outspend your rivals? To explore this question, we examine a league where league-wide salary structures create a relatively level playing field and force clubs to find competitive advantages beyond pure spending power.
Major League Soccer is unique in world football as the only major league that operates under a league-wide salary cap (as opposed to restrictions based on salaries to turnover ratio, for example). As with the other major American sports leagues, this structure is designed to create a more balanced and competitive environment, and thus a more compelling ‘product’ for the audience.
In MLS, the salary cap prevents clubs from outspending their rivals on player salaries, forcing teams to compete on smarter roster construction rather than financial dominance. Every club begins from a relatively similar financial baseline, which raises a fascinating strategic question: How can teams find a competitive advantage in squad building and on-field performance within the constraints of the cap?
Before answering that, we first need to understand how the MLS salary cap actually works and the mechanisms that shape how teams build their squads.
How “The Salary Cap” Works
First of all, the total salary (budget) cap for the 2025 season for each team’s senior roster (20 players) is around $5.95 million. If we were to divide this evenly across the entire roster, it would amount to an average cap hit of $297 000 per player. However, clubs rarely do this as they want to afford better players on higher wages in key positions and there are certain mechanisms that allow teams to “buy down” some salaries and overspend strategically on others.
The salary cap is what’s known as a “soft” cap, i.e. there are some exceptions that enable the clubs to spend beyond it. The first, and most influential of these exceptions is the Designated Player (DP) rule - sometimes known colloquially as the “David Beckham rule”. Each club gets 3 DP slots for players whose total salary and transfer fee can exceed the max budget charge per player (≈ $743k in 2025). These players often earn far more than the cap allows, as club owners are free to pay them as much as they can afford. So, although these players have high salaries, only the maximum budget charge “hits” the team’s salary cap.
This system allows teams to attract global stars while maintaining overall parity across the league. It’s how Inter Miami can afford Lionel Messi’s wages and how LAFC could bring in a player like Son Heung-min straight from the Premier League.
The bar chart above highlights Inter Miami, LAFC and Atlanta United as the league’s top spenders. However, what truly differentiates them is how they spend. Inter Miami, for instance, allocates roughly 72 % of its total roster budget to their three Designated Players: Lionel Messi, Sergio Busquets and Jordi Alba (Wright, 2025). Their salaries are more than any other MLS team’s entire roster combined. However, Philadelphia Union has shown (by winning their conference this year despite having the third lowest spending) that it is possible to ‘outperform’ spending on player salaries.
The second key mechanism influencing the salary cap is Targeted Allocation Money (TAM), which allows clubs to “buy down” the budget charge of specific players. In 2025, each team had roughly $2.7 million in TAM available. For example, if a player earns $1 million per year, the club can apply $257,000 of TAM to reduce his cap hit to the maximum budget charge, allowing him to fit under the cap as a non-Designated Player.
Clubs also have General Allocation Money (GAM), which functions as an in-league currency. It allows teams to acquire other MLS players or their rights using GAM, while the receiving club can use that amount to reduce its own salary cap charges.
There are also mechanisms such as the U22 Initiative, which allows clubs to limit and minimize cap hits for up to three U22 players. In addition, if a club signs a Young Designated Player (aged 23 or younger), it does not reduce the number of available U22 Initiative slots - effectively giving that team an extra U22 spot compared to if all three DPs were senior players.
The TAM/GAM mechanism enables clubs to sign high-quality players alongside their stars without exceeding the cap, and it’s often where the biggest opportunity lies. By identifying undervalued players who perform at near-DP levels, clubs can potentially raise their overall roster quality and efficiency.
However, finding and acquiring players who deliver DP-level impact on TAM-level contracts is far from easy. These signings often come with meaningful salaries or transfer fees, which naturally limit how much flexibility a club has elsewhere on the roster. This begs the question: could clubs achieve better overall efficiency by spreading their TAM investments across multiple positions, rather than concentrating so heavily on attacking talent?
Shifting Positional Focus
In their article on Maximising Roster Efficiency in the MLS, Daboo and Birnham (2025) tried to answer this exact question where they compared teams’ spending represented by a forward-to-defense spend ratio. The intention was to evaluate teams’ spending efficiency relative to the goal probability added (G+) per $10k of salary wages. One of their findings was that teams who spend a greater proportion of their salary on attacking players perform less efficiently. The downward slope of the regression line below illustrates this relationship:
While the difference in team efficiency isn’t dramatic, the analysis suggests a clear direction: investing more heavily in defense could be a smarter approach to roster building, particularly for teams with a lower budget (Daboo & Birnham, 2025). This argument becomes even stronger when we consider that the G+ model is based on event-data, and therefore naturally biased toward attacking contributions. Defensive actions and structural balance are harder to capture in such models, meaning the true impact of a stronger defensive unit might be even greater than the data in that study suggests.
To conclude, the research suggests that clubs may be overvaluing attacking contributions and undervaluing defensive ones. This bias is reflected in the higher G+ values typically assigned to attackers. As a result, defenders tend to earn significantly less than attacking players, which creates an opportunity for clubs to build more cost-efficient rosters. For example, attacking midfielders in MLS earn on average $354,967 dollars more than full-backs.
These insights point us toward an alternative approach to roster construction. What if a team invested in one attacking full-back capable of producing winger-like G+ output, paired with a dominant center back to maintain balance? Our potential center-back should be able to defend the wide channels in a back four, providing cover behind an advanced full-back, and also slot into a back three in possession. Such a structure could enhance both squad composition and tactical flexibility within the constraints of the salary cap. Let’s go scouting.
Methodology
Based on our analysis, we will focus our scouting on an attacking full-back who makes a lot of attacking runs and is capable of staying high and wide within our in-possession structure. Ideally, this player operates alongside a winger or attacking midfielder who moves inside, allowing the full-back to provide width and stretch the opposition. The player should be comfortable functioning either as a wing-back in a 3-4-3 or as a full-back in a back-four system, with a natural sense of when to join the attack and when to hold position as the team’s width provider.
The second profile we are targeting is a dominant, ball-playing center-back. The ideal profile combines physical presence and athleticism with the ability to defend transitions effectively, while also being composed and progressive on the ball. Below are the key metrics we have selected to identify and evaluate players for the two roles.
Attacking full back:
High Intensity Distance P90
Count Explosive Acceleration To Sprint P90
Avg Time To Sprint
Runs Ahead Of The Ball P30 Tip
Overlaps Runs P30 Tip
Underlap Runs P30 Tip
Pass Attempts To Cross Receivers P30 Tip
Dangerous Passes P30 Tip
Dominant CB:
Avg Psv-99
Avg Time To Hsr
Pass Attempts Through First Line P30 Tip
Pass Attempts Through Second Last Line P30 Tip
Carries At Speed P30 Tip
Recovery Press Engagements P30 Otip
On Ball Engagements In Transition P30 Otip
Stop Or Reduce Danger %
Direct Disruption Or Regain %
We are focusing our scouting on seven European leagues in the 2025/26 season: NOR1 Eliteserien, SWE1 Allsvenskan, DEN1 Superliga, CZE1 First League, BEL1 Pro League, ESP2 La Liga 2 and the GER2 Bundesliga 2. Note that all of the leagues except Scandinavia have smaller sample sizes since we are still early in the season.
Undervalued Attacking Left Back
After applying our performance index, these are the results of the top 15 attacking left backs across the leagues:
Timo Stavitski (26) tops our performance index and is an obvious option for our roster considering his market value of only €400k, albeit we may have to pay a little more than that, given Stavitski just won the Allsvenskan with Mjallby. He has operated as a left wing back in a 3-4-2-1, covering the flank in an expansive, fluid attacking setup. That experience aligns with our requirements for an attacking full back who can provide width, vertical running, and goal contributions. This is a huge plus as he ticks our core boxes for role fit and price efficiency.
One key detail with Stavitski is that he is a right-footer operating on the left, meaning he regularly attacks inside against the fullback instead of overlapping wide like a traditional wing-back. This inverted tendency makes him a flexible option who could also play on the right side. He excels in transition moments as he is in the top one percent for both possession counts and off ball-runs in transition, combined with general high off-ball running volume. He is also an active ball carrier, averaging 9.1 carries at speed per 30 TIP (99th percentile), and ranks inside the top five percent for dangerous pass attempts.
In the table below, we estimate the potential cost of signing Timo Stavitski on a four-year contract and how each scenario would impact the salary cap. We have outlined two versions: a cheaper option that aligns closely with his current market value, and a more expensive option that reflects a possible increase in both market value and transfer fee. The cap hit, also referred to as the budget charge, is the sum of the player’s annual amorticed transfer fee and his guaranteed yearly salary.
If we manage to sign Stavitski at his current market value, the table shows that his annual budget charge would remain well below the maximum budget charge. As a result, he could be registered as a standard senior player on our roster without the need to use Targeted Allocation Money (TAM).
If we prefer a naturally left-footed option on the left side, Adam Sørensen (24) from Odense BK emerges as a compelling alternative. The data shows that he profiles more as a traditional overlapping fullback who consistently joins attacks and delivers from wide areas, ranking in the top 10% of all fullbacks in our sample for overlap runs per 30 TIP.
What makes him particularly interesting, however, is the versatility in his movement. Sørensen is also in the top five percent for cross-receiver runs and pulling half-space runs. In practice, this means he not only overlaps but also steps inside to occupy pockets between the lines. In addition, when play develops on the opposite side, he will often position himself just outside the penalty area to capitalize on potential rebounds or second balls. Like Stavitski, Sørensen is financially attainable and can fit as a standard senior player, especially under a five-year deal that keeps his cap hit below the max charge.
Young Attacking Right Back
Below are the results of the same full back search, this time for right backs:
Thérence Kodou and Denzel De Roeve are both young right-backs who qualify for the U22 Initiative, making them particularly attractive from a roster-building perspective. Under this mechanism, players aged 22 or younger can be signed on competitive salaries or even with significant transfer fees, yet their budget charge remains fixed at around $200,000.
We are going for Denzel De Roeve (21) from SK Brann, as he represents the most affordable option between the two with a market value of around $900k. Originally from Belgium, De Roeve came through the Club Brugge academy before joining Brann, where he has featured in the Europa League this season. Brann plays an aggressive, high-pressing, and vertical brand of football, which aligns well with our desired playing style and the type of profiles we aim to recruit.
Having identified the full-backs we want to recruit, we will now turn our focus to analyzing center-backs. We are looking for a player who is fast, dominant, and capable of providing defensive cover for at least one of our attacking full-backs.
Fast and Dominant Center Back
The list above includes the 15 most dominant center-backs identified in our data search. Many of them meet our criteria for disrupting opposition attacks while also demonstrating composure and quality in possession. However, one of the key traits we are prioritizing is speed and the ability to cover wide channels and stop counter attacks. This role is somewhat comparable to how Kyle Walker operated for Manchester City during his peak years, covering the space in behind a high line using his pace and explosiveness.
Therefore, let’s find out which ones are the fastest and most explosive. The scatter plot below shows each player’s Peak Sprint Velocity and Average Time to Sprint.
Abdoulaye Sylla is the fastest center-back in our dataset with a peak speed of 31.49 km/h, but he also ranks within the top 10% for average time to reach sprint speed. Sylla currently plays in the Czech First League and is valued at around $800,000. From a roster-building perspective, he represents an excellent opportunity as we could potentially integrate him into the squad in a similar way to Timo Stavitski, keeping his budget charge well below the cap and avoiding the need to use additional allocation funds.
After confirming that Sylla checks the physical box, we also wanted to assess his composure and quality on the ball. While the chart below doesn’t directly measure progression, it provides some signal (which we can confirm with video scouting) of his on-ball ability, ranking inside the top five in our sample for ball retention under pressure.
Wildcard (Young DP)
Since we have identified several affordable and undervalued options, we now have additional funds available to strengthen other areas of the squad.
One player who has particularly caught our attention in the center-back section is Silas Andersen, a 21-year-old who has played both as a midfielder and center-back for BK Häcken in Sweden. Andersen represents a rare profile - a hybrid midfielder/defender who could provide defensive balance while contributing to build-up play and progression. Both data and video analysis confirm his versatility, as he has operated effectively in both roles. This also shows itself in his off-ball-run profile when played as a midfielder, with his high volume of dropping off runs and coming short runs:
Standing at 1.90 meters, he combines physical presence with composure and technical quality on the ball. It is especially noteworthy that he ranks first in our Dominant Center-Back Index, despite being primarily a midfielder.
However, Andersen is likely to command a significant transfer fee, with reports indicating that BK Häcken rejected a $4 million offer from FC Copenhagen earlier this year. Andersen came through Copenhagen’s academy before earning a move to Inter Milan at just 17. After a spell in the Netherlands with Utrecht, he made his way to Sweden, where he has now completed a full season at the top level with more than 2000 minutes played.
Given his age and potential, we could consider acquiring him as a Young Designated Player (Young DP). This would minimize his cap impact while also unlocking an additional U22 Initiative slot, maintaining roster flexibility for future signings. This feels like a rare opportunity to secure a player that will improve our starting XI immediately, as well as having long-term upside and strong resale value. Let’s break down the financial impact of signing Sylla for our defense and adding Andersen as a Young Designated Player:
As we can see, the big advantage with signing Anderson on as a young DP is that it only hits our cap with $200 000.
Contextual Scouting: From Data to Decision
Our analysis revealed that MLS teams often allocate a disproportionate share of their salary budget toward attacking players, leaving defensive positions relatively undervalued. Recognizing this inefficiency, we set out to identify defensive profiles that could deliver impact both offensively and defensively - players who provide structure, balance, and attacking depth in modern, transition-oriented systems. The second factor was how well these players complemented each other, evaluating them within the context of our potential team setup and how their individual strengths could interact to enhance the collective structure.
Through our contextual scouting framework, we identified four such players: Timo Stavitski, Denzel De Roeve, Abdoulaye Sylla, and Silas Andersen. Each fits a clear tactical purpose: from Stavitski’s offensive runs to Sylla’s recovery pace and Andersen’s hybrid defensive-midfield role. This is how our projected line-up looks so far:
Crucially, these signings also reflect financial discipline. By leveraging MLS mechanisms like the U22 Initiative and Young Designated Player rule, we’ve minimized our cap impact while integrating young, high-upside players into the roster. The result is a recruitment strategy that aligns on-field needs with financial efficiency. Below is a breakdown of our projected cap hits and the remaining allocation available to complete the roster:
In a league designed for parity, where every team starts with similar financial constraints, success depends on how efficiently resources are used. Few leagues in the world offer smaller clubs such an opportunity to compete on even terms. With intelligent roster building and targeted investments, it’s entirely possible to construct a team capable of challenging for trophies, without breaking the cap.
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Sources:
MLS Rules and Regulations. URL: https://www.mlssoccer.com/about/roster-rules-and-regulations
Daboo & Birnham, 2025. Maximizing Roster Efficiency. URL: https://www.stat.cmu.edu/cmsac/sure/2025/showcase/soccer_roster/report.html
Salary Guide. URL: https://mlsplayers.org/resources/salary-guide
I like how you open a window rather than close a door by inviting people to reconsider assumptions, not by shouting for attention but by laying out a perspective that is clearly thought through.
Even so, I found myself wondering about the details that sit just outside the frame. The analysis is compelling, but I kept thinking about how messy the real world can be and how often the exceptions or long term consequences end up shaping the story more than the headline point.
Very interesting article and a great use of not only statistics but a clever use of the financial constraints put on MLS clubs. College soccer in the US and University football in Japan seem like two underrated 'player pools' to scout from and it would be interesting to see from what angle these 'pools' could be looked at to find the best talent within.